By Dawn Sabo
Two things are quietly reshaping the Ketchum real estate market right now, and neither one is the mountain. The first is an airport expansion that's putting Ketchum within a direct flight of cities that previously required a connection. The second is a second-home buyer pool that, despite years of compressed inventory and elevated prices, hasn't backed off.
The real estate trends Ketchum ID is generating in 2025 and 2026 reflect both forces simultaneously. And if you've been watching this market from the sidelines, the current moment is worth paying attention to.
Key Takeaways
- Friedman Memorial Airport now serves nine direct destinations with a 14% increase in seat capacity for the 2025-2026 winter season
- American Airlines launched new direct Chicago and Phoenix routes in December 2025
- Alaska Airlines is adding San Diego service beginning March 2026
- Inventory in Blaine County is up meaningfully from recent years, creating more options than buyers have seen since before 2020
- The Harriman by Viceroy, Ketchum's first true luxury hotel, is opening summer 2026
The Airport Expansion Is Changing the Buyer Pool
Friedman Memorial Airport has quietly become one of the better-connected small airport operations in the Mountain West.
- New this winter: American Airlines launched daily seasonal service to both Chicago O'Hare and Phoenix Sky Harbor on December 18, 2025, running through April 2026
- New this spring: Alaska Airlines is adding direct San Diego service beginning March 2026
- Capacity growth: Total seat capacity at the airport is up 14% for the 2025-2026 winter season and 27% year-over-year overall
- Current direct routes: Salt Lake City, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego (March 2026), Denver, Chicago, and Phoenix
Every new direct route adds a buyer market; Chicago and Phoenix buyers specifically have been underrepresented in Ketchum ownership relative to their purchasing power.
Second-Home Demand Hasn't Softened
Despite rate increases, elevated prices, and years of near-zero inventory, demand from second-home buyers in Ketchum has remained a consistent market driver.
- Sustained demand: Second-home and investment buyer interest has remained strong through rate cycles that slowed primary market activity elsewhere
- Remote work tailwind: Sun Valley has been actively marketed as a tech-friendly retreat
- Millennial entry: Younger high-income buyers are beginning to enter the luxury resort market in Ketchum
Inventory Has Finally Opened Up
After years of extreme scarcity, inventory has increased meaningfully; not to balanced-market levels, but enough to give buyers more options and more negotiating room than they've had in years.
- Inventory increase: Sun Valley saw a 33% increase in available inventory in early 2025; Ketchum listings were up 66.7% month-over-month by mid-2025
- Days on market: Properties are sitting longer compared to the single-digit timelines of the 2021-2022 peak
- Still constrained: Blaine County is estimated to be short approximately 1,500 housing units; the increase in inventory represents relative improvement, not a true buyer's market
- Best opportunity tier: Well-priced properties in strong locations are still moving quickly; the slower days-on-market figures are driven by overpriced listings, not weak demand
New Development Is Adding to the Landscape
Large-scale development remains rare in Ketchum due to federal land boundaries and zoning restrictions, but several notable projects are either under construction or opening this year.
- The Harriman by Viceroy: Opening summer 2026 as the first true luxury hotel in Ketchum; branded residences are part of the project and represent a new ownership category for the market
- Appellation Sun Valley Hotel: An EB-5 financed project at 45% completion as of early 2025, targeting a Q2 2026 opening
- Mixed-use downtown: Fourth + Main and Second + Main are adding luxury residences alongside retail and restaurant space in the downtown core
- What this signals: Developer confidence in the long-term market; the branded residence component of The Harriman, in particular, tends to attract buyers who want the services of a luxury hotel with the equity of ownership
Pricing Is Elevated — And Holding
The price correction that some observers predicted after the 2021-2022 peak hasn't materialized in any meaningful way.
- County-wide assessed values: Blaine County's total taxable assessed value went from $10.7 billion in 2019 to $25.8 billion in 2025
- Ketchum median: Sitting around $2.4M as of mid-2025, with luxury estates at the top end exceeding $4M
- Appreciation trajectory: The structural supply constraints that have long supported Ketchum values remain firmly in place; no new land is coming online
Buyers entering this market should expect to pay for quality and location, as the discount opportunities are limited to properties with specific issues, not broad market softness.
FAQs
How directly does the new flight service affect property values?
Connectivity and property values in resort markets correlate closely over time. The new Chicago and Phoenix routes are particularly significant because both cities have large pools of high-income second-home buyers who have historically favored more easily accessible mountain markets.
Is now a better time to buy in Ketchum than the past few years?
For buyers who were priced out or frustrated by the near-zero inventory of 2021-2023, yes. More options, longer negotiating timelines, and sellers who are more realistic about pricing than they were at the peak.
What neighborhoods are seeing the most activity from new buyer markets?
Downtown Ketchum and the resort-adjacent areas are consistently the most active, regardless of where buyers are coming from.
Want to Know What This Means for Your Search?
The combination of improved flight access and increased inventory has created one of the more interesting entry points this market has offered in years.
If you want to talk through specific neighborhoods, price points, and what's actually available right now, reach out to me, Dawn Sabo. I know this inventory well, and I'm happy to walk you through it.
